Just a quick stats run-down on some of the Oilers' defensive prospects from the 2010 draft:
Martin Marincin (2nd round, 46th overall)
The 18-year oldis actually a rookie in the WHL playing for the Prince George Cougars. He's currently the leading scorer on his team, and has put up 11-32-43 in 42 games, good for 3rd in the WHL. What's more amazing is that he's only a 2nd round selection, and an 18-year old playing in his first year of North American hockey.
Some scouts around the league have suggested he may be hands down the best defenseman in the league, great praise considering there are 20-year old defensemen playing in the WHL. At 6'4, and only 187lb, he's got a ton of growth left to do, and once he can physically mature, it should help transition his already solid 2-way game to the next level.
Jeremie Blain
Jeremie Blaine (4th round, 91st overall)
After starting the season off with a foot injury and missing 28 games, the 6'2, 195lb Blain has come back and been a star for the Acadie-Bathurst Titans. 19-11-0-0 without him, they've gone 13-3-0-1 since his return. He's been an offensive force, pitching in 1-19-20 in 20 games. The point/game clip is good for best in the QMJHL, a position he shares with 13th overall selection Brandon Gormley. He's playing top-unit minutes for the Titans right now, and is starting to look like another great find by Stu MacGregor.
Brandon Davidson (6th round, 162nd overall)
Probably someone who the Oilers would have never noticed if not for scouting Jordan Eberle last year, Davidson has really stepped it up this year for the Regina Pats. A 6'4, 195lb force, he's playing in only his 2nd season in the WHL, and has 6-26-32 in 46 games, good for 13th in the WHL. He's 3rd on the Pats in scoring, and tops for defensemen. He's lauded for his great break-out pass, and dependable 2-way play. He's already on the top pairing in Regina, and has been very impressive for a 6th round selection.
Given where these players have picked and how they've performed, I think the Oilers have done a pretty good job transitioning from a team with horrible defensive scouting to one with the ability to find steals in the later rounds (Petry, Marincin, etc). It's still hard to say how they project without seeing them play in at least the AHL - but it's hard not to get excited looking at their numbers.
Devyn Dubnyk's performance this season cannot be measured by his record (4-3-5), as he's playing on a horrible Oilers team that sits in the bottom of the league standings. But it seems night after night that the 24-year old's facing a ton of shots and somehow keeping the team in games - and a quick glance at the stats shows how he's one of the better goalies in the league in that department.
On a team allowing an average of 3.26 goals/game, Dubnyk's been able to maintain a 2.72 GAA (compare that with starting goalie Nikolai Khabibulin's 3.47 GAA). Although that number ranks him 28th in the league, I think it's a testament to his game that when he's in the nets the opposition averages an entire 0.5 goals less per game compared to the starting goalie.
That's when you start to wonder if Dubnyk's lower GAA might be explained by facing a fewer amount of shots/game than Khabibulin. But that's not the case either: he's been facing an average of 34.7 shots/60min, which is 2 shots/game higher than Khabibulin's 32.7 shots/60min. I know a difference like that doesn't seem too significant, but it makes Dubnyk's GAA seem that much more impressive when you realize he's been facing more shots on a nightly basis.
That's when you look at save percentage, the one goalie statistic that's perhaps the most representative of the goalie's individual performance (rather than the others which reflect the team as a whole). Devyn Dubnyk has a 0.922 S%, good for a tie for 10th in the league. Just to give some context, he's just behind guys like Henrik Lundqvist, Cam Ward, and Semyon Varlamov, in a tie with Roberto Luongo and Tomas Vokoun, and ahead of guys named Nicklas Backstrom, Carey Price, and Marc-Andre Fleury. Compare this to the Oilers' "starter", making 4 times as much as Dubnyk this year: Khabibulin has a 0.894 S%.
Dubnyk's played 14 games thus far season, which is a large enough amount to give some statistical significance to the numbers he's posted thus far. He's got all the raw skills to be better than Khabibuliin - great size, patience, positioning, and reflexes - and right now it seems that he's usurped the veteran goaltender in performance as well.
At the beginning of the season I was a huge proponent for the Oilers targetting young hotshot goaltenders in backup roles around the league, looking for the next potential starter (eg. Michal Neuvirth, Anders Lindback). But Dubnyk's made a believer out of me, and I think it'll be interesting to see how he performs in the last half of the season.
Ales Hemsky has undeniably been the Oilers' best offensive player since he broke out at the end of the lockout. His points totals have consistently led this team in scoring, even when he's missed 10-15 games a season. Even now he's tied for the team lead in points (9-19-28), regardless of missing 1/3 of the season thus far. Although regularly dismissed as an injury-prone player unworthy of all-star attention by most NHL fans, Hemsky's point/game totals over the past 4-5 seasons are among the top players in the league.
That being said, until this season most would have labeled him a one-dimensional player, a flashy dangler with great vision and skillful powerplay acumen. However he's completely turned his game around this season, committing himself to back-checking and defensive-zone awareness. It's definitely noticeable for Oiler fans, who've grown accustomed to having him as the last man back into the zone on any opposition rush. He's skating hard back, using his stick actively, and even engaging physically - a Hossa-like game. Up until he got injured, he was arguably one of the Oilers' most complete forwards (apart from Horcoff). His offensive game, however, had slightly fallen off through the first 20 games of the season - something I'd attributed to him focusing a bit more on the defense. I was still impressed, happy to have him mature his game even at the expense of his normal offensive output.
But over his last 12 games, Hemsky has elevated his offensive game once again, putting up 5-12-17, a pretty unreal pace for someone showing such a great defensive effort. At 27, he seems to have finally "got it". He's limiting his offensive zone turnovers, showing great hockey sense at both ends of the ice, and is being a leader for this young Oilers team.
Some view him as an expendable piece for this team heading forward in it's rebuild, but I personally see him as a vital veteran presence that will be a major contributing factor to any success it has in the next 5-6 seasons. The Oilers don't possess a playmaker of his calibre in their system, and the fact that he's been able to complement his dynamic offensive game with a great defensive game makes him a great role model for the younger hotshot offensive players on the team.
Some have speculated Hemsky won't re-sign with the club unless he's the team's highest forward - and I don't see a reason why you wouldn't give a guy who's playing like this $5.6-6M a year over 5-6 years to lead this team through the re-build. He, along with Dustin Penner, are the type of players you keep around as a team builds its way out of oblivion.
Since the end of the lockout in 2005, the status of NHL relations with the KHL (or RSL as it was known before 2008) have been shaky to say the least. The two leagues have butted heads over and over again about players transferring between them, upsetting teams and fans alike in both nations. With the competitive nature between the two leagues has come the failure to establish a true transfer agreement, a problem that makes it extremely difficult for NHL teams to bring Russian prospects to North America to play for them.
With the "Russian Factor" have come changes in the way teams are approaching the NHL Draft. Although year after year Russian players are among the top rated prospects in the game, they have consistently dropped in the draft order because of teams fearing that a) the lack of a transfer agreement would make it difficult to actually bring the player over, or b) the players would be reluctant to leave the KHL to come to a new country.
Some pretty big names have dropped in the draft for this very reason (Rankings from TSN): 2006 F Alex Vasyunov (ranked 23rd) fell to 58th overall F Artem Anisimov (29th) fell to 54th overall
2007 F Alexei Cherepanov (4th) fell to 17th overall F Maxim Mayorov (25th) fell to 97th overall
2008 D Vyacheslav Voynov fell to 32nd overall (27p in 34g in the AHL as a 20 year old) F Andrei Loktionov fell to 123rd overall (27p in 28g in AHL as a 20 year old)
2010 F Vladamir Tarasenko fell to 16th overall (ISS had him as #4, dominant in WJHC) F Ivan Telegin fell to 110th overall (ISS had him 55th) F Maxim Kitsyn fell to 158th overall (ISS had him 49th, dominant in WJHC)
It makes sense that teams don't take fliers on these super-skilled Russians - why waste a draft pick on a kid who might not ever come over to play for you?
Well one team has completely bypassed the "Russia Factor" - the Washington Capitals. Since picking Alexander Ovechkin 1st overall in 2004, the organization has become the primary hub for Russian players in the NHL. Ovechkin has become an international ambassador for the game, and someone that all Russians look up to as a representative for their nation. His presence alone has attracted much attention to the Capitals in Russia, and it's no surprise that a bevy of Russians have headed to Washington to play with the national hero:
2002 13th overall selection Alexander Semin was essentially a "lost prospect" for the Capitals after the lockout. Although he'd had a stint with the Capitals before the lockout, Semin seemed uncomfortable in North America. He had a terrible grasp on the English language and seemed willing to spend the rest of his career playing for Tolyatti Lada of the RSL. But Ovechkin's arrival and success in Washington during the 2005-2006 season was a driving factor in Semin deciding to return to North America for the 2006-2007 season. He is still yet to get a solid grasp on the English language, and is considered somewhat of an introvert in the Capitals locker room. Yet he's stuck with Washington for 5 years now, and seems poised to sign a long-term extension to remain playing with his friend Ovechkin.
Prominent Russian free agents have also flocked to Washington to play alongside Ovechkin. Veterans like Viktor Kozlov and Sergei Fedorov signed with the Capitals, a team that was starting to become heavy with the Russian influence, as evidenced by this interview:
Another consequence of the "Ovechkin Effect" has been the Capitals' aggressive drafting of Russians through the NHL Draft. They have been unafraid of drafting flashy Russian prospects that other teams overlooked due to the "Russian Factor":
2008:
F Dmitri Kugryshev (58th overall) - 10p in 33g in AHL as 20-year old
2009:
D Dmitri Orlov (55th overall) - Blue-Chip Dman, 2011 WJHC All Star, compared to Andrei Markov 2010:
F Evgeny Kuznetsov (26th overall) - Malkin-like skill forward, 2011 WJHC All Star, on pace for higher point output at age 18 than Alex Ovechkin
F Stanislav Galiev (86th overall) - Skilled 2-way forward from the QMJHL, style compared to Giroux/Datsyuk
Already enjoying the fruits of the Semyon Varlamov pick, the Capitals seem poised to capitalize on the selection of 3 other recent Russian selections, as Orlov, Kuznetsov, and Galiev have all made a case for NHL jobs in the past season. All three of these players were highly-rated players heading into their respective drafts, but saw their value fall due to their Russian background (yes, even Galiev, who was playing in North America at age 16).
Dmitri Orlov (6', 205lb) seems poised to join the club within the next couple years, and could instantly grab a top-4 role with his great 2-way play. He's a dynamic skater with great play-making ability thanks to his vision. He also has a booming slapshot from the point that should make him an offensive threat for years on the Capitals blue-line. Plays an Andrei Markov-like game defensively - a complete defenseman with #1 potential, something we saw at the recent WJHC where he was named to the tournament All-Star team. Evgeny Kuznetsov (pictured, 6'1, 180lb) has exploded this year as an 18-year old. He's toughened up his game, showing a willingness to battle along the boards in addition to dominating in open-ice. He's your typical skilled big-bodied Russian forward, with great skating, shooting, and passing. He could dangle for days on end if he could. His dominance in the recent WJHC (2nd in scoring) allowed him to garner tournament All-Star honors, and his style and developmental rate suggest the RW could be joining Ovechkin and Semin very soon as yet another deadly threat up front for the Capitals.
Stanislav Galiev (6'2, 190lb) is a unique type of Russian - one willing to play the 2-way game. He has the typical Russian skill, great hands, vision, and shooting, and couples it with the effort on the defensive side. Many have raved that he could be Russia's answer to Claude Giroux - a great asset to have given the surplus of purely offensive stars on the team.
All three of these players have shown great excitement at being selected by the Capitals, and have indicated that they are willing to come over to North America when the team is ready for them. It's rare to have this much enthusiasm from Russian prospects - and a lot of it has to do with having Ovechkin as the team leader and face of the team.
The Oilers could take a page from Washington's playbook in regards to this trend with their current young stable of Swedish prospects. Magnus Paajarvi is arguably the most hyped forward prospect to come out of Sweden since Peter Forsberg (yes, even moreso than Backstrom and the Sedins), while Linus Omark has captured the hearts of Swedes everywhere. With Anton Lander coming up in the wings and the potential for Adam Larsson or Gabriel Landeskog joining that bunch in the upcoming draft, the Oilers could set up something similar to what Detroit has done in the past 15 years - become the ideal destination for Swedish players looking to join the NHL.
