One of the lesser-discussed prospects heading into this draft has been 6'3, 190lb Finnish winger Joel Armia. Playing for Assat of the SM-Liiga (FNL), he's put up 18-11-29 as a rookie - and is literally a human highlight reel. He's got a combination of size, grit, and hands that you don't usually see from European players - and looks like one of the players the Oilers should look to target if they try to move up in the upcoming 2011 draft. Check out this selection of goals and other plays he's made this season:
He has ridiculous hands for someone his size - and a wicked shot as well. Most of his goals this season have been of the highlight-reel variety - but he shows a willingness to go to tough areas to gain the puck and make and finish plays. Although he possesses the hands of a finesse player, I think his NHL prospects is that of a hybrid skill/power forward - along the lines of a quicker Johan Franzen.
This season, he finished 5th in team scoring, and 2nd in goal-scoring - but the numbers don't do justice to Armia's true draft potential. Last year, 5'8, 165lb Mikael Granlund scored at a point/game pace in the FNL and went in the top-10. Armia is nowhere near that pace, but his combination of size, soft hands, and ridiculous sniping ability make him one of the more potent goal-scorers to come out of Europe in a while. Earlier, he was ranked as the 2nd best European player in the 2011 draft after Adam Larsson, and many were projecting him to go in the top 10 - however he's fallen in rankings due to a being somewhat of a no-show at the WJHC (played only one game, putting up 1A). As it is, he looks bound to go in the 12-20 range at this point.
At only 190lb, he has about 15-20lb more to gain before he becomes the power forward that he can become. It's hard to find comparisons for him - as it's rare to have such a large player with such great skills. The primary factor preventing him from becoming an Alexander Semin-like player is his lack of footspeed - he's an average skater at this point. His long stride allows him to effectively move in straight lines, but his overall mobility is average by NHL standards.
Regardless, the skill-set this man possesses is ridiculous, and he has potential to be the top goalscorer coming out of the first round. As far as the Oilers go - this is the ideal RW for their top-6 heading forward - a big bodied power forward with the offensive savvy to gel with the likes of Hall, Paajarvi, and Eberle.
Last December, I did a mid-season assessment of Martin Marincin's offensive production in the WHL, using point/game and size comparisons with other high-profile blueline prospects to come out of the CHL in the past. He was on a ridiculous pace, scoring above point/game, on level with some of the elite offensive defensemen in the NHL today. - what made it more amazing was he was doing it with a large 6'4 frame. Most of the high-point producers in the CHL are smaller defensemen who have already grown into their bodies and can play the offensive game more easily than players 6'2 and above. Marincin's ability to produce this kind of output given his size made Oiler fans drool at the potential.
However, his production slowed as the season came to an end, as he went from 35 points in 33 games in December to 56 points in 67 games at season's end. Many have speculated as to why it happened. Was the first half of the year an anomaly? Was the 70-game schedule simply too much for a player who'd previously never played more than 40 games in a season? Were teams able to identify ways to stop him? Did the Prince George Cougars undergo any internal changes that limited his offensive role? It's hard to speculate at this point, but I think it's safe to say his first WHL season was a great success. Here's a re-do of that table from December, this time using his final statistics, and using only 6'2+ defensemen from the CHL over the past 10 years.
TOP POINT/GAME OF 6'2+ NHL DEFENSEMEN IN THE CHL AT AGES 18/19
Name
Age
HT
LEAGUE
GP
G
A
P
P/G
Keith Yandle
19
6.02
QMJHL
66
25
59
84
1.27
Jay Bouwmeester
18
6.04
WHL
61
11
50
61
1.00
Cam Fowler
18
6.02
OHL
55
8
47
55
1.00
Luc Bourdon
18
6.02
QMJHL
20
2
18
20
1.00
Cam Barker
18
6.03
WHL
52
15
33
48
0.92
Marc Staal
18
6.04
OHL
57
11
38
49
0.86
Alex Edler
19
6.03
WHL
62
13
40
53
0.85
Martin Marincin
18
6.04
WHL
67
14
42
56
0.84
Luca Sbisa
18
6.02
WHL
18
4
11
15
0.83
Alex Pietrangelo
18
6.03
OHL
36
8
21
29
0.81
Tyler Myers
18
6.07
WHL
58
9
33
42
0.72
Travis Hamonic
18
6.02
WHL
57
13
27
40
0.70
Dion Phaneuf
18
6.02
WHL
62
19
24
43
0.69
Brent Seabrook
18
6.03
WHL
61
12
29
41
0.67
Braydon Coburn
18
6.05
WHL
55
10
20
30
0.55
Shea Weber
18
6.04
WHL
60
12
20
32
0.53
Jared Cowen
18
6.05
WHL
59
8
22
30
0.51
Jeff Schultz
18
6.06
WHL
72
2
27
29
0.40
These are still some spectacular stats, especially given the fact that Marincin was playing one of the weakest teams in the WHL. His point productoin at age 18 is up with some of the higher-profile 1st round picks from the past decade - just look at some of the names below his on the table! He still remains a high-profile offensive prospect for the Oilers, and looks to be a 2nd-round steal like Travis Hamonic (2008) and Shea Weber (2003) were in their drafts.
Apart from the late-season decline in production, there is one other negative for Marincin: he had the fourth-worst +/- rating on the team, with a -12 rating to finish the year. I know the Cougars are a bad team, but that doesn't look good for a guy being suggested as a future top-pairing guy. However, even Travis Hamonic was a -31 in his 18-year old season - and he's doing fine on the NYI blue line today.
So even with the doom and gloom expressed by some Oiler fans about Marincin's late-season struggles, it's still safe to say his rookie season in the WHL is one of the best 18-year old seasons for a big defenseman in recent history - Stu MacGregor certainly worked his magic in picking him up.
On Friday, [Tambellini] had a meeting with Anton Lander - and ST-sports can now tell you that the NHL club wants him under contract. "They want to see Anton with the organization next year," said Lander's agent Claes Elefalk. Anton was already offered a contract by the Oilers last year. He chose to turn it down. "It was not an easy decision, but we agreed that it was the best for both parties," said the center in July 2010 to ST-sports. Having taken great strides this season, and basically carrying Timra on his shoulders, it seems that he may be ready to take the leap [to the NHL]. "All of that is stuff you can discuss with my agent" said Anton Lander. His agent Claes Elefalk said this over SMS text: "Anton met Tambellini for a little bit on Friday.The Oilers told Anton about the organization, how next year is expected to look for them, and that they would like to see Anton in the organization next year." Elefalk also indicated that Anton will now take time to make his decision after thinking about what Timra and Oilers have said. "Anton will think it over a bit now that the season is over." Could he be lent back to Timra if he goes over [and fails to make the team]? "No such discussions have begun." Timrå sporting director Stefan Lindqvist, has previously said that the team has a plan both with and without Lander for next season. "It may take time for this kind of stuff.I have no idea if he's going to stay or leave - it is too early to tell."
It looks like Tambellini is once again endeavoring to get one of his prized European prospects signed in the off-season, after successfully traveling to Sweden in 2010 to bring over Magnus Paajarvi for this season.
I'm sure the Oilers are telling Lander that there is going to be an open competition for the bottom-6 center spots heading into next season. Even with the great play of Cogliano and Brule during certain stretches of this season, there is no guarantee that these players are on the roster next year. Their departure could open up a spot for the Swede. Additionally, the Colin Fraser experiment has seemingly failed in terms of procuring a 4th line center - since coming over from Chicago he's provided average defensive play to go along with a non-existent offensive game.
Lander could get some valuable experience with the big club next year, similar to how Jarret Stoll broke in as an Oiler in the 2003-04 season, moving his way up the depth chart by showing the ability to play a dependable 2-way game. Having Lander could also provide some new looks in the top-9 forwards, as slotting him between Paajarvi and fellow Swede Linus Omark could create a very intriguing line combination. Paajarvi and Lander could provide the 2-way strength while feeding off of Omark's offensive game to create a line that could grow into a dominant force heading forward.
As for whether or not he'll come, it's tough to say. Paajarvi coming over after last season was essentially a sure thing, as his draft pedigree, WJHC and WHC dominance, and solid SEL numbers made it clear he was ready to take the next step. Although he hasn't become the instant star many Oiler fans hoped him to be, he's progressed well in his rookie season, playing a role similar to the one he was playing in Timra when he left (top-6 forward with 2nd line PP minutes). Him staying in Sweden one more year would have had no major benefit to his game - as he would be playing the same role versus lesser competition.
Lander is essentially Timra's next captain and #1 center heading into next season, something that makes the thought of him staying one more year in Sweden (under an NHL contract so the Oilers retain his rights) more intriguing. It would allow a chance to see some of the still-uncovered aspects of Lander's game - like the "Zetterberg-lite" offensive game many Swedish fans have suggested may exist in his repertoire. Coming to the NHL may prevent him from developing this part of his game, essentially stifling whatever offensive potential he may have heading forward.
But Zetterberg started off as an offensive skill player, one who focused on defense in his early 20's and turned into Timra's #1 center and most dependable player a decade ago. Lander is the opposite, a player projected as a 3rd line center who is slowly showing signs of becoming more offensively competent. I'm a firm believer in that you can't teach offense to a defensive player the same way you can teach defense to an offensive one - so in my opinion there's no "Zetterberg-lite" in Lander - he's just developing his offensive game at the same pace any young player would. I think if the opportunity presents itself he should be given a bottom-6 role with the Oilers next season and start off with sheltered minutes playing with the likes of Paajarvi and Omark. It would give him a chance to acclimate to the league alongside two talented countrymen who can help unearth whatever offensive potential may lie within him.
With the Dustin Penner trade producing a potential 12-22nd overall pick in this year's upcoming NHL draft, I thought we could look at some of the players Stu MacGregor and Co. may be looking at heading into the June draft.
That's future 2011 top-3 pick Adam Larsson getting absolutely embarrassed by Mika Zibanejad, a 6'2, 195lb forward playing with Djurgården of the Swedish Elite League. (Now for those of you who're wondering, Zibanejad isn't your typical Swedish name, but it's because his father is half-Persian).
In a fashion comparable to Oilers prospect Anton Lander, Zibanejad plays a strong 2-way game uncommon amongst Swedish players. He has great size for his age (17), and has been lauded for the ability to play a gritty, shutdown game to complement his offensive skills. He's an average skater at this point, but with his size and stride many think it's something that will easily improve with development. He also possesses a better shot than Lander, and I'd say it's safe to say his offensive potential trumps that of the 2009 2nd rounder. His ability to raise his game in high-pressure situations is similar to that of Lander, while his work ethic and dedication to the game have earned comparisons to his idol, Sidney Crosby. Based on his size, comparisons have ranged from Samuel Pahlsson all the way to Ryan Kesler (without the speed), while some have talked about him in the mold of Mike Richards. In my opinion he'd be a better version of Tyler Pitlick (31st overall, 2010). Although he lacks Pitlick's speed, his offensive game and defensive effort trump that of the Oilers' young center prospect. Here's an example of him making a physical effort to knock a defender off the puck, then finish quickly with his great hands:
After starting the season with Djurgarden's Jr squad, Zibanejad earned a call-up to the SEL team half-way through this season, and to this point has played 26 games.
Although he started slow, he's been at a near-point/game pace over his last 7-8 games, and has now put up 5-4-9 in 26 games (a 0.35 point/game pace on par with Magnus Paajarvi's 0.34 as a 17-year old in his pre-draft year in 2008-2009). He's actually recently replaced heralded Chicago prospect Marcus Kruger as the 2nd line center on the powerful Djurgarden team, and has seen more responsibility as his ice time has risen significantly in the past month. With the playoffs approaching, he's set to be a key player in Djurgarden's bid for a championship. He's been able to bring a strong physical game to complement his offensive production - reminding a lot of people of another Swede currently playing in North America...
I like to think of Zibanejad as the SEL's answer to Gabriel Landeskog, another Swede currently playing in the OHL who's being talked about as a guaranteed top-4 pick in the upcoming draft. They both play a North American style with gritty 2-way games and great skill. In my opinion his SEL offensive success is arguably more significant than Paajarvi's, as he seems to benefit less from the bigger European ice than Paajarvi did in putting up his numbers. He fights for space in high-percentage areas, and is more than capable of playing the cycle game along the boards - like your typical North American.
His recent surge has many thinking he could go in the 10-15 range, but he's definitely someone the Oilers should keep their eyes on as the draft approaches and they think about players to select with Los Angeles' 1st Round pick. If Djurgarden gets eliminated from the SEL playoffs early enough, he will likely be featured on Sweden's squad at the World U-18 Championships coming up in the spring. It'll be interesting to see if he can translate his recent success into dominance in a tournament against his peers.
Here's an Interview with Mika Zibanejad done by the guys at Copper & Blue earlier this season, before his successful call-up from Djurgarden's Jr-20 squad to their SEL team.
