Oilers' Chances at Larsson/RNH Good Regardless of Lottery Result

Tomorrow is the big day for at least 5 groups of scouting staff around the league - the NHL Draft Lottery will decide the top-14 drafting order for the 2011 NHL Draft to be held on June 24-25th. For the Oilers, it's yet another shot at the #1 draft selection, a position they won last year and used to pick Taylor Hall.

As it stands, the odds of picking first look like this:

48.2% - Edmonton Oilers
18.8% - Colorado Avalanche
14.2% - Florida Panthers
10.7% - New York Islanders
8.1% - Ottawa Senators

I've been an Adam Larsson supporter from the very start, I've followed the ups and downs of his game since early-2010, and still continue to be on his bandwagon. Not only is he likely to be the best player from this draft, he's what the Oilers truely need - a future top-pairing defenseman. He's not going to be as offensively dynamic as a Drew Doughty/David Rundblad, but I think he can achieve a Ryan Suter-Shea Weber hybrid type of game - and that is a thought that makes me drool.

So regardless of the Oilers having a greater chance at picking 2nd overall than 1st (51.8% vs 48.2%), I think the Oilers' chances at picking Adam Larsson (if that's who they truely desire) look much better than that.

Florida's play-by-play announcer Randy Moller has recently all-but-guaranteed that the Panthers would be taking a forward with whatever pick they were given. It makes sense given that the team has picked up two great defensemen in Dmitri Kulikov and Erik Gudbranson over the last couple drafts. I could see them pushing hard for a player like Ryan-Nugent Hopkins. So even if they were to win the lottery, it basically adds another 14.2% to the likelihood that the Oilers will have an opportunity to land Larsson.

Ottawa is another team that has a glutton of solid young defensemen in their system. On top of the success of youngster Erik Karlsson in the NHL, they have upcoming offensive dynamo David Rundblad entering the mix from the SEL, while Jared Cowen has really turned his game around in the WHL and looks to make the team in the next year or 2. With no real offensive depth at center apart from Jason Spezza, this team really needs a future star center heading forward, and I'd say they take one of Couturier or RNH if they won the lottery. So chalk up another 8.1% to the Oilers' chances at landing Adam Larsson.

As for Colorado, I'm all-but-certain they opt for Larsson if they were to win the lottery. Their depth at center is essentially set with Stastny, Duchene, and O'Reilly, while their need for a strong winger like Gabriel Landeskog isn't too high with players like Mueller, Hejduk, Jones, Fleischmann, and Galiardi in the wings. I know they just picked up Erik Johnson, but you know they're licking their chops at rounding out their defensive core heading forward with a player like Adam Larsson. They also have smaller guys like Steffan Elliot and Tyson Barrie working their way up the system, and it'd be good to have a bigger body in Larsson on the blue-line to stabilize that.

The Islanders have done a lot of early drafting over the past 5-6 years, and they've accumulated great youngsters both at forward (Tavares, Bailey, Niederreiter, Okposo, Comeau, Grabner) and defense (de Haan, Hamonic, McDonald), but I think they opt for Larsson instead. He rounds out their top-4 heading forward with his great 2-way ability. They need a #1 defenseman more than they need a #1 center/winger.

Based on all this, the Oilers have a 70.5% chance at landing Adam Larsson, if that's who they identify as the top pick in the upcoming draft. If they were to want Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, that turns into a 77.7% chance at landing RNH.

Whoever they prefer, they have a pretty great chance at landing him.