The Evolution of Ales Hemsky - Part 2

DEFENSIVE PLAY

There has without a doubt been an improvement in Ales Hemsky's defensive game - many have been quick to point out his increased commitment to back-checking, a Hossa-like dedication to helping out in his own zone, something we hadn't seen from him before.

It's hard to find numbers that can indicate how much he's improve defensively - I hate using +/- because it's a stat confounded by team performance. Thanks to behindthenet.ca, we've been able to look at the "+/- Relative to Team" for Hemsky over the last four seasons, a stat that allows us to assess a player's +/- in context of their team.

	(+/-) RelT
2007-2008	0.26
2008-2009	0.27
2009-2010	2.51
2010-2011	1.34

This is a pretty telling transition. Hemsky has always been a relative + player for the Oilers - that comes as no shock when he's the best offensive player and has been consistently fed relatively easy minutes with quality linemates. But there's been quite a drastic shift in the number over the last couple seasons, as Hemsky's on-ice performance has transitioned from being primarily one-dimensional offensive play to dynamic two-way play. It's even more stunning when taking into account that his minutes have become more difficult this past season (QC and QT).

PROGNOSIS
Over the last few years we've all wondered when Ales Hemsky was going to achieve his "potential". Many have hoped to see him become a dominant 90+ point scorer whose offensive creativity more than made up for his perceived defensive shortcomings. It's clear this hasn't happened yet - but it shouldn't be cause for disappointment.

I think Hemsky is on the cusp of achieving a new type of potential - one that none of us really saw coming until the last couple years. He's becoming somewhat of a lite version of Marian Hossa - a dynamic skill player who dedicates himself to solid defensive play. Hossa experienced a decline in offensive production as he moved from a 90+ point offensive dynamo to a 65-80 point defensive dynamo.

If Hemsky can continue to show the dominant even-strength production he has over the last couple seasons while continuing to commit himself defensively, I'm more than happy to claim he's achieved his "potential" - one that we can all appreciate on a team filled with one-dimensional youngsters.

He's been a near-point/game player over the last couple seasons, all this in spite of having abysmal PP numbers on a 30th-ranked team. He's shown the capability of being a top-10 PP producer in the league once given the right weapons - so it wouldn't surprise me to see Hemsky achieve a few 85+ point seasons in the near future. Here's why:

• As Hall, Eberle, and Paajarvi develop into stars, Hemsky will once again have offensively dynamic linemates to help add to his production at both ES and on the PP.
• With the arrival of Cam Barker the Oilers finally have a legitimate point-shot to take advantage of on the PP. The threat of his shot will help Hemsky's PP production improve - by both the virtue of setting up Barker for one-time blasts as well as opening up room for Hemsky to operate down low.

Any talk of trading or not re-signing Hemsky is premature and short-sighted - he is likely to be a valuable asset for this team if it ever plans on contending for a Stanley Cup in the next 5-6 years.

The Evolution of Ales Hemsky - Part 1

I think it's safe to say Oiler fans have taken Ales Hemsky's play over the past few years for granted . Many feel he's basically plateaued, playing at the same high offensive level he was playing during his breakout 2005-2006 season. That, coupled with the rash of injuries he's had over the past couple seasons, makes it easy to forget the effect Hemsky had had upon this team. What most have missed is a marked improvement in his play at both ends of the ice.

TIME ON ICE

Let's take a look at Hemsky's TOI breakdown over the last 4 years:

	TOI	ES TOI	PP TOI	PK TOI
2007-2008	18:34	14:31	3:52	0:11
2008-2009	18:38	14:18	4:14	0:05
2009-2010	17:56	14:08	3:45	0:02
2010-2011	18:16	14:16	3:13	0:47

His minutes have been essentially the same over the last four seasons. He's consistently among the top-3 forwards in minutes played, and the distribution seems pretty consistent between ES and PP TOI. But this past season, Hemsky had a bit of a shift in role. He started to play some secondary and tertiary PK minutes.

OFFENSIVE PRODUCTION

Now let's look at his offensive production. It's not good enough to just look at his total points and make an evaluation off of that. I think it's important to consider his production per situational minute played, a stat available thanks to behindthenet.ca (with rank amongst NHL forwards in brackets, min. 20 GP):

	ES P/60	PP P/60
2007-2008	2.36 (34)	5.93 (5)
2008-2009	2.08 (93)	5.00 (56)
2009-2010	2.85 (9)	4.71 (56)
2010-2011	2.88 (4)	3.47 (107)

There's been a major change in Hemsky's production over the past few seasons. In the two earlier seasons, we see that his even strength production is between average to below-average for the average NHL 1st liner (top-90), while his power-play production is among the top forwards in the league. But then there's almost a role-reversal over the next two years, as Hemsky's even-strength production shoots to amongst the top forwards in the league, while his power-play numbers fade to below that of a typical NHL 1st-liner (top-90).

There's potential explanations for both phenomena:

• The change in PP personnel over the four years, as Hemsky moves from having Souray and Visnovsky on the points (2007-early 2010) to having Whitney and Gilbert (early 2010-2011). The result is the loss of two of the best point shots in the league. This creates a twofold loss in Hemsky's production - as he loses the threat of the point shot as well as the space it opened up for him to create plays down low (eg. the cross-ice one-time set up to Horcoff)
• The emergence of Dustin Penner as an offensive force in the last couple of seasons allowed Hemsky to enjoy having a legit first-line winger for the first time in his career. The result was an instant boost in even-strength production.

Although the powerplay reasoning is sensible, it's incorrect to assume it was solely Dustin Penner that was responsible for Hemsky's meteoric rise in even-strength production. He's been a top-10 even-strength scorer in the league for two seasons now - and I think some credit has to be given to Hemsky for this development. He's become a more dynamic offensive player than he already was before.

The numbers may be enhanced by the brevity of his injury-shortened seasons, but just how much would a full 82-game season have flattened Hemsky's production? I strongly believe he would have remained a top-15 even-strength producer in the game - despite not having the elite linemates that many current superstars do.

QUALITY OF MINUTES

Also notable is the shift in the type of Hemsky's minutes, as indicated by the QualCOMP (quality of competition) and QualTEAM (quality of teammates) stats:

	QualCOMP	QualTEAM
2007-2008	0.076	0.077
2008-2009	-0.001	0.259
2009-2010	-0.025	0.074
2010-2011	0.017	-0.056

He was seeing some high quality competition in 2007-2008 while playing alongside Shawn Horcoff (who was scoring like an all-star, making for a high QT), but that QC number has fallen as Horcoff's game has declined. For a couple seasons, the Oilers had Sam Gagner (a much less defensively-reliable pivot) centering Hemsky, making for relatively easier minutes playing with quality on-ice teammates in 2008-2009 and 2009-2010.

However, this all changed last year as Hemsky's QC number rose with increased defensive responsibility, a side-effect of having a bunch of new rookies on the roster to baby-sit (making for a lower QT). But even more amazing is that he was able to be so productive (4th in NHL ESP/60) in spite of playing with such poor-quality teammates against fairly competitive opposition.

What does this all mean? The numbers say Ales Hemsky has become a player that can score in spite of the shutdown attempts of the opposition and the poor-quality linemates he's been handed - the ultimate sign of offensive consistency and reliability.

***Part 2 of "The Evolution of Ales Hemsky" will look into Hemsky's defensive improvement as well as predictions for his future performance.

Andrew Ladd: No Actual Improvement

A lot of has been made of Andrew Ladd's 2010-2011 season in which he put up a career-high 59 points to lead the Atlanta Thrashers in scoring. The season was the single motivating factor behind a new 5-year, $22M contract that pays him 4.4M a year, a considerable bump from the $2.35M he was making after helping the Blackhawks win the 2010 Stanley Cup.

But a closer look suggests Ladd is the same old player he was in Blackhawks - simply the benefactor of increased opportunity - both in the quantity and quality of his minutes

2008-2009

CAP HIT: $1.55M

STAT LINE: 82GP, 15G-34A-49P, +26

POINT BREAKDOWN: 47 ESP, 1 PPP, 1 SHP

QUALCOMP: 0.108 (team-high)

QUALTEAM: 0.145

MOST FREQUENT LINEMATES: Dave Bolland, Martin Havlat

TOI BREAKDOWN: 14:23/GP (13:04 ES, 0:57 PK, 0:22 PP)

Here Ladd was playing on Chicago's 2nd line, receiving little powerplay time. Regardless, he was able to put up 49 points in his largely 2-way role, a staggering 47 of which were at even-strength. His QUALTEAM (quality of on-ice teammates) vs QUALCOMP (quality of on-ice competition) also indicates that he's being fed some tough 5on5 minutes (albeit with good linemates). This Bolland-Ladd-Havlat unit was entrusted with going head-to-head against some quality opposition.

2009-2010

CAP HIT: $1.55M

STAT LINE: 82GP, 17G-21A-38P, +2

POINT BREAKDOWN: 37 ESP, 1 PPP, 0 SHP

QUALCOMP:-0.019

QUALTEAM: -0.062

MOST FREQUENT LINEMATES: Marian Hossa, Patrick Sharp, John Madden

TOI BREAKDOWN: 13:41/GP (12:59 ES, 0:05 SH, 0:36 PP)

Despite seeing more offensively-inclined linemates, we're seeing a decline in both his QUALCOMP and QUALTEAM - indicating a decline in his role. This is further indicated by relatively smaller TOI, as well as his lower point totals. He also spends a lot of time on a 3rd-line unit with John Madden - playing some shutdown third-line minutes (explaining why QUALCOMP > QUALTEAM) after Dave Bolland returned from surgery to resume his 2nd line role. Still, most of his minutes and points continue to come at even-strength - in minutes where he's playing low-quality competition with even lower-quality teammates.

2010-2011

CAP HIT: $2.35M

STAT LINE: 81GP, 29G-30A-59P, -10

POINT BREAKDOWN: 38 ESP, 18 PPP, 3SHP

QUALCOMP: 0.039

QUALTEAM: 0.099

MOST FREQUENT LINEMATES:Little, Wheeler, Bergfors, Peverley
TOI BREAKDOWN: 20:04/GP (15:08 ES, 1:53 SH, 3:02 PP)

And there you go folks - it becomes blatantly clear why Ladd was able to elevate his point totals more than he did before - it was all opportunity. He was getting fed relatively easier and more enabling minutes than he was receiving in Chicago (sensible as he was essentially their best forward). Additionally, he's seeing a marked increase in powerplay (1st among ATL forwards) and short-handed minutes (2nd), which explains an exponential rise in his production in both situations.

Regardless of playing more even strength minutes than he'd ever had TOTAL minutes over the past 2 years (along with QUALTEAM>QUALCOMP), his even-strength production was actually LOWER than it'd been any of the previous seasons.

CONCLUSION

Andrew Ladd was nothing but a benefactor of opportunity this past season - a man who regressed in even-strength play even with more offensively-enabling minutes, but took advantage of increased powerplay time to add to his point totals - a powerplay powered by some elite QB's in Dustin Byfuglien and Tobias Enstrom.

He was able to take an at-best stagnating 5on5 game and average production from increased power-play time and turn it into a $2M raise on what he was getting from the Thrashers in 2010-2011. I'm not saying he's overpaid - I'm just saying any suggested "improvement" in his game is false - it was all just a product of him being used differently by his team.

Objectively Defining "Generational Talent"

There's been much argument in hockey circles as to how to define a "generational talent" - a player so dominant that only 1 of them is seen per generation. Most agree that there are 3 players in NHL history that have fully and truly embodied the term - Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, and Bobby Orr. These were the three most dominant offensive forces playing in their time period - no one can argue this point. Some think that those are the only 3 generational talents that the NHL has ever had, while others like to expand the definition to include other names - including Crosby and Ovechkin. Although I think the latter 2 aren't generational talents YET, I do feel there's room to expand the list of "generational talents" to a few more names. I think most definitions have been unfair to the defensive side of the game. I was looking to perhaps expand the definition of the term to goaltenders and defensemen other than Orr as well.

The Solution

After doing much research into it all, I've come up with this definition:

Generational Talent = Any player who is able to win the Art Ross, Norris, Selke or Vezina Trophy at least 6 times over a 10-year span.

I feel such ownership of any of these "positional" (specific to F, D, or G) trophies over a 10-year period is a true indicator of the absolute dominance displayed by generational players. I've decided to exclude the Hart Trophy from consideration - just because it seems to be a trophy that isn't positionally awarded.

ART ROSS
There have been only 2 forward that have fit this criteria: 

• Wayne Gretzky - no argument here, easily the greatest player of all time. Owner of almost every major offensive scoring record there is in the NHL. He had without doubt the smartest and greatest hockey mind in history, using his ridiculous vision and playmaking ability to light up the league and put up points totals that no one will ever be able to surpass. He's in a league of his own. He won the Art Ross 8 times in 10 years spanning 1981-1990, and 10 times overall.

• Mario Lemieux - again a no-brainer. The only person that has ever come remotely close to matching Gretzky's numbers, and was able to do so in an arguably more defensive-minded time period. Perhaps the greatest physical specimen to ever play the game, using his 6'4, 230lb frame to dominate the game in a way that no one had seen before. Beautiful shooting, passing, and stick-handling ability that should have been impossible given his size. He won the trophy 6 times in a 10-year period spanning 1988-1997.

HONORABLE MENTIONS

1) Jaromir Jagr - A sick combination of size and skill, Jagr is one of the top stick-handlers of all time. He was a prolific goalscorer and play-maker in his prime, and was able to win 5 Art Ross trophies in 7 years from 1995-2001. Most would argue that if he hadn't been playing in the shadow of Lemieux with the Penguins for most of the 90's he would have been able to establish a generational niche of his own.
2) Gordie Howe - A brute scoring force in the 50's and 60's, Howe was able to both physically and offensively dominate the game. He won 5 Art Rosses in 7 years from 1951-1957, and eventually won a 6th. He was both a great goalscorer and an excellent playmaker - and by virtue of his amazing longevity (100-point season as a 41 year old) - many believe he was a generational talent as well.

*Phil Esposito gets excluded from this because he played with Bobby Orr throughout his Art Ross dominance - removal from Orr resulted in an instant drop in production into point/game range.

NORRIS

There have been 3 defensemen that have fit this criteria:

• Doug Harvey - Changed the way his position was played forever. Flawless one-on-one defender that was arguably the inventor of the break-out pass. Effortlessly slowed the game down to his speed before sending teammates flying up the ice on rushes. Was the quarterback behind a powerplay so potent the NHL had to change its rules to allow penalized players back onto the ice after a PP goal was scored. Won the Norris 7 times in 8 years from 1955-1962.

• Bobby Orr - Perhaps the most unique talent to ever grace the game - Bobby Orr was a great defensive player with the skating ability and offensive instincts of a superstar forward. He was the ultimate package for the Bruins - able to balance strong defensive play with unbelievable Art Ross-winning offensive outputs. Although shortened by injury, his career will always be remembered for the 8-9 year period of dominance he had with the Bruins. He won the trophy 8 consecutive times from 1968-1975.

• Nicklas Lidstrom - At first glance many may wonder how Lidstrom found his way into this list. But the achievements are there: 4 Stanley Cups, 11 Norris nominations, an Olympic Gold Medal, and a Conn Smythe Trophy. His game, like his personality, is not flashy at all. Quiet, confident, and efficient, he's been both the best shutdown defender and the top offensive defenseman in the league over the past 10 seasons. He doesn't do it with elite speed, crushing hits, or a booming slapshot - but with a Gretzky-esque ability to read the play and always be in the right spot at the right time. He's using his elite positioning and stick-work to shut down the opposition, while taking advantage of his great breakout pass, playmaking, and accurate shooting to put up 1000 career points over a 19-year career. He has the best hockey sense of any defenseman in NHL history - and has used it to win 7 Norris Trophies in 10 years from 2001-2011.

HONORABLE MENTIONS

1) Ray Bourque - A very efficient 2-way defenseman that combined an effective physical defensive game with a high-octane offensive game. He too like Lidstrom was able to play at a high level for an extremely long time, and although not at Lidstrom's level hockey IQ-wise, was able to compensate with greater physical ability. He won 5 Norris Trophies in 8 years from 1987-1994.

VEZINA

The Vezina is an odd trophy, one that has had changing criteria since it's inception in 1918. Until 1945 it was given to the goaltender deemed most valuable in the league. From then until 1980 it was awarded to any goaltenders who played more than 25 games for the team that allowed the fewest goals during the regular season (current criteria for the William Jennings Trophy - and not a true indicator of goaltending value). Since 1981 the trophy has gone back to it's original routes, being awarded to the most valuable goaltender in the league. And only one goaltender has filled the criteria of generational talent:

• Dominik Hasek - Easily the most dominant goaltender of all time, he consistently put up ridiculous statistics in the late 90's as he single-handedly transformed a below-average Sabres team into annual playoff contenders with his heroics. His unorthodox, flailing style was surprisingly efficient, as he consistently put up >0.920 save percentages and <2.25 GAA's in winning the Vezina 6 times in 8 years from 1994-2001.

SELKE

No player has reached the criteria yet for the Selke Trophy. The merit here is to have 2-way play so dominant that the player is able to control the game.

HONORABLE MENTIONS:

1) Pavel Datsyuk - Although Bob Gainey won 4 consecutive Selke's from 1978-1981 - he never quite had the elite 2-way ability of Pavel Datsyuk. Since the lockout Datsyuk has been able to master the 2-way game and combine his talents to be not only the best defensive player in hockey, but a top-5 offensive talent as well. His 3 consecutive Selke's from 2008-2010 were well-earned, and the possibility exists that he could win another 3 over the next 5 years.